Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Malaysia oil reserves - to last 20 years only?

At $67 per barrel, oil wealth varies between $212bn for Malaysia to over $4300bn in Saudi Arabia.

UAE's oil to last 100 years and earn it $1.6 trillion

The UAE oil reserves could last at least 100 years at present output levels and fetch the country a net wealth of $1.6 trillion (Dh5.8trn), semi-official international data showed yesterday.

The net wealth of Saudi Arabia, which controls more than a quarter of the world's extractable crude deposits, was put at $4.35trn, while that of Kuwait was estimated at $1.67trn.

The estimates were included in a working paper released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week and based on an assumed oil price of $67, population growth, and a discount and extraction rate.

"The oil wealth term involves the present discounted value of future per capita oil production… the baseline estimate for the valuation of oil wealth for each country uses a five year average of future oil prices for Brent and West Texas oil," it said.

The IMF said the estimate used in the paper, prepared by its experts, is taken from the summer 2007 World Energy Outlook report, which estimated the five year average of future oil prices at $76.4 a barrel.

It noted that the present discounted value of oil wealth is dependent on the assumption made about the discount rate and population growth as well as the oil price.

The report said the current real return on an inflation indexed bond in the United States is two per cent while the Office of Management and Budget estimates that private companies in the US use a seven per cent real discount rate when making judgments about the viability of investment projects.

"As a baseline estimate a real discount rate of four percent is used. Population growth estimates are taken from World Bank 20-year forecasts issued in its World Development Report," the study said.

It citing World Bank forecasts as showing the that populations in the Middle Eastern countries are projected to grow the fastest at between 2.2 and 2.5 per cent, with Malaysian and Venezuelan populations projected to grow at 1.5 per cent and Russia's population is projected to decline slightly.

"Another assumption required to obtain the net present value of oil wealth is the extraction rate.

"To obtain the current extraction rate, average production estimates over the period of 2004-2006 were expressed in terms of the stock of oil reserves in 2006," the IMF experts said.

"For our estimate of the net present value of oil wealth we assume an extraction rate of one percent per annum for the UAE, Venezuela, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, which implies that the oil reserves are fully extracted within 100 years."

According to the study, the present value of future oil production is based on a four per cent real discount rate (r = 0.04), country-specific population growth estimates, oil prices at $67 per barrel, and extraction periods between 20 and 100 years.

At $67 per barrel, oil wealth varies between $212bn for Malaysia to over $4300bn in Saudi Arabia.

The annual return (assumed at four per cent with corrections for population growth differences) is smallest in terms of output for Malaysia at 2 .5 per cent of GDP and rises to almost 20 per cent of GDP for Kuwait, the study added.

Citing other estimates, the study put the proven oil reserves at around 97.8 billion barrels in the UAE, 264.25bn in Saudi Arabia, 101.5bn in Kuwait, 90.01bn in Venezuela, 79.54bn in Russia and 4.20bn in Malaysia.

Vacancies in Futtaim-Carillion UAE

Click the Image

Obama or McCain - Osama And Paris Hilton Join The Campaign

See more Paris Hilton videos at Funny or Die

Out-thinking a canny enemy
By Hady Amr and Ariel Kastner, Special to Gulf News

Americans are not the only ones caught up in this year's presidential election. The nature of the race, having an African American and a woman on the major parties' tickets, alongside two wars and an economic crisis of historic proportions, has proven captivating to people throughout the world.
But while our friends across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are watching the race closely, America's enemies are also watching from the mountain villages where Osama Bin Laden's followers are hiding out.
Al Qaida is following the race intensely because fear and destruction are the principal aims of terrorist groups. It is fear and the resulting chaos on which terrorist groups feed.
The fog following a terrorist attack is thick, and it often leads many to support decisions that may not advance America's security interests. Worse, these decisions often play into the hands of the terrorists who attacked the US by increasing their popularity.
Examples of this abound, but the US invasion of Iraq in the wake of 9/11 is perhaps the most pronounced example. The war, the administration's use of torture on captured prisoners, and its disregard for international treaties was fodder for Al Qaida. As world opinion of the United States sank, recruiting people became easier.

No coincidence
It is this climate that Al Qaida looks to create - a climate that is borne of fear and results in American actions that serve Al Qaida's own interests. To strike the greatest amount of fear in civilians, terrorist groups wait to act until an event or time period that will amplify their attack. The tail end of a presidential campaign is one such opportunity.
While this campaign has been the longest in American history, a significant number of Americans are only now deciding on their choice. It is these final weeks of the political campaign that find Americans closely attuned to news and the statements of the candidates.
For this reason, what happens between now until Election Day can have a greater impact on public opinion than during any other period in the campaign.
It was no coincidence that on October 29, 2004 - the final days of the John Kerry and George W. Bush presidential campaign - Bin Laden released a video message saying Al Qaida was intent on attacking the United States. This period was when large numbers of Americans were watching the news.
The same tactic, with deadlier results, was used earlier that year in Spain, when terrorists attacked Madrid trains only days before that country's elections.
Al Qaida may likely look to exploit this year's election by releasing a video message from Bin Laden or his deputy Ayman Al Zawahiri, or worse, staging an attack - something some have called an "October surprise".

Hitting where it hurts
So what should be done? The greatest threat to groups like Al Qaida is not just vigilance at our borders, ports, and high-risk targets; it is also rational, targeted policies that undermine their recruiting capabilities.
Ending torture, closing Guantanamo Bay, actively engaging in the Middle East peace process, and reaching out to allies are ways the United States can drain the swamp from which Al Qaida attracts its members. In short, restoring the US standing in the world is a lynchpin of national security.
While this sounds reasonable, and perhaps many Americans agree with it, opinions often change within a climate of fear. The candidate who responds louder, or the one who promises an abundance of military strikes can become most appealing. Some argue this happened in 2004.
Americans should make their decision about whom they want to be the president of the United States by judging which candidate can implement strong policies that address the terrorist threat - policies that not only maintain our military and counter-intelligence vigilance, but also include negotiations, diplomacy, and the end of torture.
This would end a contradiction in American values and undermine - at least partially - the ability of terrorist groups to advance their recruiting.

Hady Amr is director of the Brookings Doha Centre and Ariel Kastner is a research analyst at Saban Centre for Middle East Policy.

Lagi Berapa Hari ke Putrajaya?

puas menghitung hari
tarikh datang dan pergi
tidak jadi-jadi
janji tinggal janji
berapa jauh lagi
untuk berjalan kaki?
jemu menanti hari
retorik terus berapi
masih dalam mimpi
apakah ini strategi
atau sekadar ilusi
jenaka abad ini?
sabar kata mereka
harinya akan tiba
kita semua ke sana
dalam peralihan kuasa
yang membawa cahaya
ke bumi bertuah tercinta!

Dubai's New Terminal 3 (For Emirates Airlines)

Virtual guide is HERE

The new facilities, which opened last week, currently deals with all Emirates flights to and from the GCC and the Americas – 40 flights a day, around 15 per cent of the airline’s total services.

The second phase of the opening, to be launched shortly, will include flights to the rest of the Middle East and Africa, increasing operations to 99 flights every day, 37 per cent of all flights.

Flights to Europe will take-off in the third phase, escalating operations to 168 daily flights or 60 per cent of all Emirates’ services. The fourth and final phase will include flights to the Indian Subcontinent, East Asia and Australasia and bring the total to 269 flights every day.